Insights

1 minute read

Will the relief rally — and fragile Iran ceasefire — hold?

7 minute read

But will the Iran conflict weigh on employment in the coming weeks?

1 minute read

Much depends on how long the Strait of Hormuz is blocked during the Iran conflict.

6 minute read

Will its next policy move be another pause, a cut or a hike? It depends.

8 minute read

If the Iran war does not derail it, the US economy should remain strong.

1 minute read

Rise in oil prices might goose inflation just as the US labor market appears to be weakening.

1 minute read

US labor market was strong across the board in January.

6 minute read

Equity rally broadens out amid positive January Barometer.

6 minute read

Policy fog now begins to lift after this week's rate-cut pause.

1 minute read

We think GDP growth could reach 3.3% in 2026.

5 minute read

But midterm elections and Fed leadership transition could spark volatility.

1 minute read

With inflation under control, the Fed should cut rates twice later this year.

7 minute read

Equity and fixed-income investors are responding differently to tariff and fiscal policy uncertainty.

5 minute read

Solid US economic data also helps as equities reverse their April freefall.

3 minute read

For now, Trump is 'just' insulting Fed Chair Powell, as the Treasury market has pushed back. 

7 minute read

Import surge pushes first-quarter GDP into the red.

7 minute read

Labor market remains solid, despite tariff uncertainty.

5 minute read

Trump's policy reversals buoy markets.  

7 minute read

Should investors focus on solid hard data or weak soft data?