Correlations in flux as markets price in immediate shocks
Bond yields climb to cap a volatile week
Traditional asset allocations rely on a basic premise that when equity market prices go down, fixed income investments will hold value and support the portfolio, primarily as the flight-to-quality trade moves to US Treasurys (UST). This negative correlation has worked historically over the extended period since interest rates peaked in 1980/81, and more recently from 2000 through 2020, particularly in the immediate aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), as this was an era of deflation.
More recently, however, stock/bond correlations have been near 0 or independent — and now almost every asset class shows increased correlation with oil prices over the past few weeks. This is a regime-based relationship, not a structural condition, with inflation sentiment and direction a destabilizing factor.
Shifting expectations
Surging oil prices since the beginning of the Iran conflict have shocked the market into reconsidering the inflation impulse and the possibility that it will once again regain its footing and begin to climb. The tenor of the conflict is uncertain but important. With oil in backwardation — current (spot) price higher than futures — markets are pricing in immediate shocks that are viewed as fading. This reveals that investors continue to view the conflict as short lived with oil prices likely to recede.
In this immediate scenario, duration will price as a risk akin to others. Fixed income investors are focused on income rather than price appreciation, as the tailwind of disinflation is gone but income appears to be back, and a reliable part of the story.
Yield Curves and the Fed
US Treasury yield curves have been flattening but that took an aggressive turn on Thursday afternoon, March 19. The trigger seemed to be a repricing of Fed expectations: pricing out fed cuts for this year and contemplating a hike. The steepener has been a crowded trade and now is being unwound. The composition of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) remains difficult to forecast, with some timing elements up in the air. Our house view is for one ease this year, likely in the fourth quarter.
Credit in focus
Both investment grade (IG) and high yield (HY) spreads are wider year‑to‑date. Despite the move, the spread widening has been orderly. This is notable given a number of meaningful pressures (supply, AI displacement, private credit, energy prices, and geopolitical risks). Even after widening, spreads remain low versus long term averages.
IG supply has been heavy. The market priced $113bn over the week of March 9th, the second highest week on record. So far, this month, new issues are at third highest ever. Amid strong earnings reports and solid balance sheets, demand for yield continues to provide support.
With the recent spread widening, it is possible to find some value in IG, supporting our recent move to neutral from underweight. Overall, the IG names remain well bid and flows have been positive.
Conversely, HY experienced outflows this week and CCC yields hit 10.9%, a level not experienced since last summer. Leveraged loans also had outflows. HY Option-Adjusted Spreads (OAS) are now close to ~310 basis points but we are waiting for the 400-ish level to move toward neutral from our current underweight in multi-sector fixed income strategies.
Private credit remains prominent in the headlines, highlighting the liquidity mismatch between loans to middle-market companies of tenors measured in years against retail investors with more frequent liquidity needs. The issues likely remain at the forefront but do not seem to have the characteristics—namely leverage—that could build toward a systemic crisis.
Current outlook
All of which is to say that headlines appear to be focused on all or nothing outcomes right now. Our approach emphasizes discernment and discipline with a fundamental review of business drivers, credit fundamentals, and security structures prior to a discussion around valuation. Industry sector is considered but does not necessarily drive toward a binary outcome.
We continue to favor a fixed income posture that emphasizes liquidity and quality. With inflation risks skewed higher due to energy price dynamics and geopolitical uncertainty, we recommend maintaining neutral duration with an investment grade quality bias. Overall, we believe this approach allows portfolios to remain resilient amid near‑term pressures.
Read more about our current views on positioning at Fixed Income Perspectives